Beirut Economics Research Seminar Series-Dr. Bernard Sinclair-Desgagne
Conference Room 1617, 16th floor, AKSOB, LAU Beirut Campus and via Webex
The LAU Department of Economics and the AUB Department of Economics co-organize the Beirut Economics Research Seminar Series. The aim is to bring together Lebanon’s economics research community—including economics faculty members, researchers, students and professionals.The sessions feature discussions that enable participants to exchange ideas directly and critically with speakers on frontier economics research topics. They are held every two weeks during the fall and spring semesters, alternating between the LAU and AUB campuses. Attendance is open to all.
The Beirut Economics Research Seminar Series is generously funded by the AKSOB Dean’s Office at LAU and the FAS Dean’s Office at AUB.
For more information, please contact Dr. Jamal Haidar at LAU.
Title: Foreseeing Unknown Unknowns
Speaker: Dr. Bernard Sinclair-Desgagne
Affiliation: Université Côte d’Azur
Time: 12:30 p.m.–2:00 p.m.
Location: LAU AKSOB and via Webex
About the talk:
Abstract: Unknown unknowns are things that we do not know we do not know. They are akin to Knightian or deep uncertainty, indescribable events, unforeseen contingencies, unawareness, surprises, serendipity and exaptation. They are not representable ex ante; let alone can they be ascribed probabilities of occurrence.
In retrospect, it is often realized that having prefigured some unknown unknowns before they materialized might have allowed for significant payoffs or the avoidance of major losses. Key areas where this has recently been reemphasized include public policy, technology governance, climate change adaptation, business strategy, entrepreneurship and innovation, and security. Yet, identifying in a timely manner the unknown unknowns that truly matter remains an elusive task.
In a recent paper, I initiate an approach to gain some grasp of unknown unknowns. This approach has rigorous foundations in formal concept analysis (FCA), a branch of mathematical order theory that is increasingly used for data mining. It builds only on the assumption that, if the description of whatever might take place fits a structure similar to that used to convey current knowledge, then there should be tangible clues about unknown unknowns within the available data. These clues can be unveiled by “thinking outside, then inside, the box” in a proper and systematic way.
Overall, this approach appears to be widely applicable. It can incorporate various kinds of data—quantitative and qualitative, objective and subjective, financial and nonfinancial. It relies on tables and spreadsheets, making its implementation user-friendly.
After explaining the foundations of the approach, this talk will illustrate its use through concrete applications in business and economics.
About the speaker:
Biography: Bernard Sinclair-Desgagné is an emeritus professor of economics at SKEMA Business School and a member of GREDEG at Université Côte d’Azur. He holds a PhD from Yale University. His main research areas are environmental economics, the economics of organization, the economics of risk and uncertainty, and the management of innovation.
His work has been published in major journals such as Econometrica, Management Science, Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, and Journal of Law, Economics & Organization. His recent research focuses on incentive compensation and responsible business, the environmental goods and services industry, corporate social responsibility and artificial intelligence, and innovation-support systems.
He currently serves as associate editor of the Journal of Public Economic Theory and co-editor of the International Review of Environmental and Resource Economics. In 2004, he was elected a fellow of the European Economic Association. In 2006, he received the Finance and Sustainability European Research Award (with co-author Pauline Barrieu of the London School of Economics) for the article “On Precautionary Policies,” published in Management Science. In 2021, he was named a fellow of the Louis Bachelier Institute.