Targeting Growth for Jobs and Women’s Employment
Strategic sectoral choices can drive job creation and advance women’s economic inclusion in Lebanon.
Lebanon’s prolonged economic collapse has transformed investment from a development objective into an urgent necessity. With unemployment at historic highs, fiscal space severely constrained and women disproportionately excluded from the labor market, policy decisions must now deliver measurable impact with little room for error.
Dr. Ali Fakih, professor and associate dean at LAU’s Adnan Kassar School of Business (AKSOB), has conducted a new study that provides a data-driven framework for identifying where limited investment can generate the greatest employment gains while advancing gender inclusion.
Commissioned and published by UN Women, the study, “Sectoral Investment Strategies for Job Creation and Female Employment in Lebanon: An Input-Output Analytical Approach,” responds directly to the scale of Lebanon’s post-2019 economic collapse and the widening gender gaps it has produced.
“That combination created an urgent need for evidence on where limited investment could generate both jobs and inclusion,” explains Dr. Fakih. Rather than advance broad reform agendas detached from fiscal realities, the study asks a pertinent question: Which sectors offer the highest employment returns per unit of investment, and how can those returns be made more inclusive for women?
The study argues that while general labor market reforms remain necessary, they are insufficient in a context of acute resource scarcity. Lebanon’s economy has contracted by more than a third since 2019, inflation has surged and nearly three-quarters of the population has fallen into poverty. In such conditions, dispersing investment across the economy risks diluting its impact.
“In a fiscally constrained context, policymakers must prioritize sectors where each unit of investment yields the highest employment and gender returns,” Dr. Fakih says.
To apply this approach, the study combines input-output analysis with gender-disaggregated labor data. This methodology captures how demand in one sector stimulates production and employment across others, while also revealing who benefits from growth. The analysis challenges common assumptions. The trade sector, for example, emerges as Lebanon’s largest job creator in absolute terms, generating an estimated 380,000 direct and indirect jobs due to its size and exceptionally high output multiplier.
Yet women remain underrepresented in this sector. “The finding that surprised us the most is the magnitude of the trade sector’s job creation despite its low employment multiplier,” notes Dr. Fakih. “It highlights how sector size can dominate overall job totals.” At the same time, he cautions against equating job volume with inclusion. “High job creation does not automatically translate into gender inclusion. Without targeted measures, trade will reproduce existing gender segmentation rather than correct it,” he says.
By contrast, sectors such as education and health, grouped under “other services,” show high female participation and strong employment multipliers but generate fewer jobs overall because of their smaller economic footprint. This contrast underscores one of the study’s central insights: Employment multipliers, sector size and gender composition must be considered together. Job-rich sectors do not automatically deliver inclusive outcomes, while female-friendly sectors may lack scale without targeted investment.
The study also employs scenario-based projections of female employment from 2023 to 2028 under optimistic, pessimistic and no-intervention assumptions. These scenarios translate present-day policy choices into medium-term labor market trajectories, offering policymakers a tool to compare outcomes rather than rely on short-term crisis responses.
Across scenarios, female labor force participation shows modest improvement, but women’s employment remains heavily concentrated in services, while participation in industry and agriculture continues to decline.
“Scenario projections help decision-makers anticipate trade-offs rather than resort to ad hoc emergency measures,” Dr. Fakih explains. Without intervention, occupational segregation deepens, exposing women to sector-specific shocks and limiting long-term earnings and stability.
Beyond participation rates, the study reframes women’s employment as a question of quality and resilience. Women in Lebanon remain disproportionately concentrated in informal and lower-paid segments of the economy, increasing vulnerability to economic shocks. The research shows that the sectoral location of employment shapes exposure to informality, access to social protection and long-term earnings trajectories.
“Policy should aim to increase women’s employment, broaden sectoral access and improve job quality,” Dr. Fakih says. Targeted investments, paired with gender-responsive skills development, labor regulation and social protection, can help redirect women toward more resilient and productive sectors.
Importantly, the study’s policy recommendations are calibrated to Lebanon’s governance and fiscal constraints. They are modular and prioritizable, allowing for phased implementation through public action, private sector engagement and donor-supported programs. If forced to prioritize, Dr. Fakih argues that policymakers should focus on investing in sectors with strong employment linkages, implementing gender-responsive skills and placement programs in underrepresented sectors and advancing labor policies that reduce structural barriers such as childcare and inflexible work arrangements.
Universities, research centers and civil society, he adds, have a critical role to play by providing monitoring, evaluation and training partnerships that connect evidence to implementation.
Ultimately, the study indicates that strategic economic decisions remain important even during a crisis. It highlights how incorporating gender into structural economic analysis can produce recovery strategies that are both effective and inclusive.
“These findings show that structural economic tools can be made gender-responsive,” Dr. Fakih says. “That is relevant not only for Lebanon but for any crisis-affected economy seeking to rebuild in a way that is resilient and equitable.”